Netflix aims to hit $1tn valuation, double revenue and add 110m subs by 2030 – report
UK drama Adolescence found global success on Netflix
Netflix executives have set a target of reaching a market valuation of US$1tn, doubling revenue and adding around 110 million more subscribers by 2030, according to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report.
Today, Netflix’s market cap stands at US$398.4bn, with its stock trading at around US$930 per share. The price is up 53% from a year ago and shares were trading as high as US$1,058 in February.
The streamer posted revenue of US$39bn in full-year 2024, meaning it would aim to raise that to almost US$80bn over the next five years.
Within that US$80bn, it is also targeting advertising revenue of US$9bn by 2030, according to WSJ. While the streamer does not disclose its advertising revenue, a report from market research firm eMarketer projects it will exceed US$2.1bn this year.
Another of the goals is to triple operating income by 2030, after hitting around US$10bn in 2024.
In terms of subscriber numbers, formerly the main metric upon which Netflix’s success was measured, the streamer is aiming to reach 410 million subs by the end of 2030, up from the 301.6 million it disclosed during its most recent earnings report.
Netflix’s top leadership team shared the ambitious goals with other senior executives at an annual meeting last month, according to WSJ, which cited people who attended the meeting.
The report comes on the eve of Netflix’s first-quarter earnings announcement, set for Thursday, which will be its first financial report where it will not disclose subscriber numbers.
Many analysts interpreted the decision to stop reporting subs numbers as a signal that Netflix’s subscriber growth – which was reignited over the past two years by a password-sharing crackdown and the introduction of an advertising tier – would slow down from 2025. However, WSJ’s report that Netflix aims to add 110 million subscribers by the end of 2030 would, if accurate, would cast doubt on that theory.
A third season of Squid Game is on its way this year
The WSJ report also comes a couple of weeks after equity research publisher MoffettNathanson estimated YouTube’s current value at between US$475bn and US$550bn.
As Netflix has pulled away from the other streaming services, such as Disney+ and Max, YouTube is increasingly being viewed as its biggest competitor.
Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos has sought to distance himself from the comparisons, recently saying at a Paley Media Council event that YouTube is in the “killing time” business while his company is in the “spending time” business. However, Netflix is clearly interested in YouTube creators and talent, having greenlit new iterations of several series that originated on YouTube, including dating series Pop the Balloon and reality series Inside, led by UK influencer group The Sidemen.
Netflix is reporting earnings at a challenging time for all American media companies, which, for the most part, have seen their valuations decline amid mass uncertainty stemming from US president Donald Trump’s trade war. However, Netflix has so far been less impacted than many of its tech and studio peers, with its shares falling less than 0.5% since Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements.
On the programming front, the streamer is also riding a wave of momentum following the global success of four-part UK drama Adolescence, the second season of Squid Game, with a third to come later this year, and its first medical procedural, Pulse. Meanwhile, WWE Raw has also consistently appeared in its global top 10 list since debuting in January.
