Report estimates YouTube’s value at up to $550bn with revenue set to surpass Disney

A report by equity research publisher MoffettNathanson has estimated YouTube’s value at between US$475bn and US$550bn and predicted the platform’s revenue will exceed Disney’s for the first time this year.

Neal Mohan

The report, authored by MoffettNathanson’s senior research analyst Michael Nathanson, said the Google-owned platform should be dubbed the “new king of all media” after also recently surpassing Disney in terms of total viewership in the US.

According to Nielsen’s aggregate US viewing data, YouTube led all media companies in February with a share of 11.6%, ahead of Disney (10%), Fox (8.3%), Netflix (8.2%), Paramount Global (8.2%), NBCUniversal (8.1%) and Warner Bros Discovery (6.1%).

And while YouTube’s 2024 revenue of US$54.2bn was enough to make it second best, behind only Disney, MoffettNathanson said it expects the platform will leapfrog the Mouse House this year.

According to Nathanson, if YouTube were a standalone business, its valuation would be between US$475bn and US$550bn, which equates to around 30% of parent Alphabet’s current valuation.

The research firm also sees a strong continued growth trajectory for YouTube, potentially extending its lead in terms of both engagement and revenue over the rest of the streaming field.

“YouTube has substantial runway for further growth – not just in monetisation but also in expanding into new business segments, such as becoming the premier streaming aggregator,” said Nathanson. “If executed effectively, this could further widen the gap between YouTube and the other media players.”

That growth trajectory is being propelled by its three main business lines: advertising revenue, which was up by 15% to US$36.2bn in 2024; subscriptions, which number more than 125 million for its YouTube Premium and YouTube Music services; and YouTube TV, which has more than eight million subs in the US.

The research firm also predicted major gains in operating income. Nathanson estimated that YouTube generated around US$7.8bn in operating income in 2024, projecting that will climb to US$10.2bn in 2025 and US$13.8bn in 2027.

YouTube CEO Neal Mohan has made no secret of his desire to become the dominant player on television screens globally. At the start of 2024, as part of his annual predictions for the platform in the year ahead, he said YouTube’s “next frontier is the living room and subscriptions.”

Earlier this year, he said that the way people are watching the platform makes it “the new television,” as YouTube revealed that watch time on TV screens has exceeded that of mobile devices.

Last week, in another show of YouTube’s growing influence, a group of some of its biggest creators, including MrBeast and Dude Perfect, Kinigra Deon and Ryan Trahan, took part in an upfront-like presentation where they presented their content slates, plans and audience data to advertisers.