Live long and prosper in Formatland

By Siobhan Crawford 07-07-2025

C21’s resident formats expert examines the lifespan of a format and whether it is possible to identify early on which ones will make it to become golden oldies and which won’t.

Rising Star
It’s two words but it is a powerful industry memory. Remember that Mipcom in 2013? Chequebooks in the air like you just don’t care, minimum two season commitments… and then the bottom fell out after the US and German ratings tanked hard. M6 in France cancelled mid-season. The format died in the international market and Keshet International has not been the same since. It is a format that is still in its 11th season on Keshet in Israel and apparently slaying with a 44% share, but no one will buy or reboot this one.

The question: can we predict, or at least understand, the lifespan of a format? With all the ups and downs of life, the second winds (reboots) and death, is there a way to identify early on which will make it to the golden oldies and which won’t? We are going to look at a few examples to try to understand.

Where, what, how
Destination X launched in Belgium on VTM in late February 2023. The format set a record for the most expensive local series to date in what was whispered to cost 450k big ones an episode! The format won multiple awards in the Reality Format category. A dedicated line production company for all international versions of the format was set up, X-line, and six international versions were announced.

The original territory, Belgium, premiered and “delivered numbers possibly not quite commensurate with its reported cost” at 405k viewers but a bigger percentage of the 18-44 audience. Remember this is a high-profile launch because this format has been positioned as an international format to sell globally, build a brand but also build on a strong demand for competition reality formats (most notably, The Mole hails from Belgium) and the eyes of Formatland watched… six countries followed the fanfare quickly.

Germany (ProSieben) announced June 2023, launched November 2024, amassed 530,000 viewers (A3+), including 280,000 in the target group. This resulted in a market share of just 5.9% (A14-49), below the station average, and then falling.

In the Netherlands (RTL4), season one in May 2024 performed fine for the first five episodes with a healthy 23.5% consolidated average market share in the A25-54 target demographic, and more than 850,000 consolidated viewers (A6+) – short of the Golden Million – until the Euro 2024 football tournament started… then it went down. A recommission announced in September 2024 saw the channel make a business decision to try again.

M6 in France picked up the format in April 2023 and launched it in December 2023. The “underwhelming” 1.4 million average viewers/18.1% share and the “small weaknesses in the programme” should mean no return but the whisper is they will try again. Face palm.

For DR in Denmark this was a big risk (announced September 2024 and on air March 2025), and again the cost versus results were not balanced. With a series average of 517k consolidated viewers, this did not hit any peaks and it lost the younger demos (and VoD) to The Floor, which sat against it on TV2.

The US launched in May 2025 with huge fanfare on Peacock with the linear broadcast on NBC using America’s Got Talent (AGT) as a lead-in. But looking at live viewership it has been up and down, despite ranking as Peacock’s number one alternative series launch in the past month. The crossover in talent casting across NBC series has pulled in the younger demo, but Deadline recently reported 14 million viewers to date across linear and streaming up to episode eight, which translates to 1.75 million per episode, i.e. half of what AGT can do in live viewership alone in one episode.

And the UK… well, we don’t know where that version is, and I am sure this is causing a delay for many in deciding to pull that commission trigger.

To anyone in the market, this is an inspirational story in the first two years of a format’s life (after many years developing). I think it is a story, and strategy, replicated by The Box from Seefood most recently: go big, grabbing visuals, loud, key territories in the bag and a big focus on the US. But as with the tortoise and the hare, does speed help a format live longer, were the big sales headlines worth the results? An OK launch in the domestic market and a mixed bag of ratings internationally and only one country recommissions. I think you can probably already see why I would be using this example when we talk predicting life span.

Translation please
Why did Rising Star die early in its life? Because of really bad ratings. But we have had similar for All3Media’s The Traitors in multiple territories, you might say, and this is true. Just last week The Traitors’ season finale in Spain on Atres performed poorly in Wednesday prime, ranking third in the timeslot. So why does it not matter for The Traitors like it did Rising Star? Because Rising Star tanked in the US, plus in each country it aired, whereas The Traitors had successful US and UK seasons amongst the varied 20-plus international versions. The Traitors has now become a business decision too – to have a mega brand and make it work so it does not go to your rival.

How do we look at Destination X in this mix? We have had a decent enough US launch, on Peacock, but a slow European crawl, for many reasons, and expensive budgets to low performance. This means this format has had something of ‘an early life crisis’ with those weaknesses M6 found and young demo engagement, plus the fact we have fatigue in this genre. It needs to be re-worked, scaled and, potentially, if you want a reboot in 10 years you will need a Deal or No Deal Island situation as the format alone won’t warrant an extended life.

Generally speaking, when looking at commissioning we look at budget, we look at market relevance, international performance and we look at ‘steam’. You know how Talpa counts the commissions of The Floor – they are a very reliable train chugging on, whereas Destination X has slowed. All3Media counts The Traitors in a similar way – it is market penetration they want. This makes it undeniable.

When we look at lifespan, all of the above really matter because it is this complete picture that cements a format in our minds and memories. And while personnel changes in our industry, most people will still be around for the 10-year reboot returns. It is the early years of life that determine the life expectancy of a format.

Comparison is a bitch
Now the potential of any format, the aspiration of any format owner, is the long life of Who Wants to be a Millionaire?. Topping the K7 Giants leaderboard with 182 versions internationally since launching – that’s huge! The Floor, Wheel of Fortune, MasterChef, Love is Blind, The Voice… These formats will be considered evergreen and should be able to have a long and happy life, potentially enjoying spells of success and reboots. I think some genres of shows will find they become outdated or no longer as acceptable to society and possibly have a shorter life – The Bachelor, for example, or Farmer Wants a Wife, Beauty & the Geek (Virgin Island, Better Date than Never, I Kissed a Boy). Then, of course, we have shows that made a splash and there is nothing concrete at the core making them feel ingrained in society to warrant a reboot. Yes, I mean The Summit.

Let me say a lot of soft formats are launched or formats that are not formats at all but rather local content that a producer (or low-stocked distributor) just hopes can be a format without the investment of making it a truly creative ‘copy-paste international format’ and brand. We are not talking about these. These will have relatively small, short lives and could be replicated in a neighbouring country, but that’s it. Investment in creating a brand and ‘universe’ and evolving it season-on-season, quality-controlling the games and the casting etc – that is needed with a format to give it a long life.

What this all means is that the lifespan of a format is formed in the early years. We are nurturing our tiny humans to become good citizens of the world. We are nurturing our formats to get recommissions and, unfortunately, speed helps no-one. If your format tanks in key countries in the first years and does not retain stability in a key market like the US, then it will shorten the life of the format. Can it be rebooted? Certainly – enjoy your money in 10 years’ time. But better is keeping a show alive today and being the little train that could – counting one, two, 10, 15, 20 and making each adaptation count. Plus, a US sale is actually better later and not earlier because 1) the US will want backend for the sales impact and 2) US sales slow other countries as they want to watch how it performs. Also, keeping a format alive today adds to the value of the IP and likelihood of a reboot later.

Deciding to be the ‘quick-burn or chugging train’ will determine if you live into your golden oldies, so go slow if you want to ‘live long and prosper.’