Nordic commissioning rebound will take at least 18 months – Ampere

Commissioning in the Nordic market will start to stabilise in about 18 months following a tumultuous 2023 that saw local and global streamers rein in their spending, according to Guy Bisson of Ampere Analysis.

Guy Bisson

Speaking at the TV Drama Vision conference in Göteborg, Bisson said the Nordics were suffering during a “global slowdown that is affecting all regions” but that it would begin to recover in 18 to 24 months.

This will happen partly because embattled Nordic streamer Viaplay and the streaming businesses of the major studios will be back on an even keel, added Bisson, executive director at Ampere.

The Nordic SVoD market reached maturity very early and, with few new services launching and existing ones commissioning fewer originals, the region is now settling into a much slower pace of growth.

Viaplay is set to commission no more than 10 original scripted shows per year across Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland, as well as a lot more unscripted series and documentaries, as part of a pared-down originals strategy.

On stage in Göteborg, Bissons pointed out that “crime, mystery, thriller and police” content all featured prominently in upcoming scripted commissions by global streamers, which will play into the hands of a Nordic TV market that is known for its crime programming.

“It appeals to that older demographic, which is increasingly important for growth,” Bisson said.

Industry execs at TV Drama Vision anticipated investment gravitating towards productions with lower budgets, while medium-budget shows will struggle.

“That is a global trend. Rationalisation of spend kicked off with Netflix slowing down and the statement by management that they now expected ‘more bang for their buck’ from their content investment. That sentiment is now driving all the streamers’ production decisions and is a trend that is sure to continue now streaming has entered its customer-retention phase,” Bisson said.