Global SVoD subs to jump by 485m, Netflix to lose top slot to Disney+

Global SVoD subscriptions are set to soar by 485 million to reach 1.69 billion between 2021 and 2027, according to UK firm Digital TV Research.

The research also forecasts more bad news for Netflix, which in April posted its first subscriber losses in over a decade with its overall membership shrinking by 200,000 to 221.6 million. Digital TV Research predicts Disney+ will overtake Netflix in 2025 in terms of subscriber numbers, adding 144 million new users between 2021 and 2027 to take its total to 274 million.

Meanwhile, Netflix stands to lose four million subscribers in North America during the same period, but will add 31 million new users globally. It will also remain the top revenue winner, earning US$34bn by 2027, which is similar to Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+ combined, although is only US$4bn more than its total in 2021.

Disney+ Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2027 and these countries will supply 114 million (42%) of the global Disney+ subscriber total, but only US$1.58bn (11%) of Disney+’s revenues, which will stand at US$14.7bn by 2027.

Overall, Netflix, along with fellow US-based streamers Disney+, HBO, Paramount, Amazon and Apple TV+, will have 988 million paying subscribers by 2027, up from 612 million in 2021.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Our Netflix forecasts for 2027 are 29 million lower than our February update, at 253 million. Netflix needs to boost its content to counter its fresher and cheaper rivals.”