Western European pay TV revenues forecast to drop by almost $5bn by 2028

Pay TV revenues in Western Europe will decline by nearly US$5bn between 2022 and 2028, according to UK analysis firm Digital TV Research.

That represents a sharp 18% drop, with pay TV revenues set to fall in every country in the region except Malta. Streaming sites such as Netflix and Amazon Prime will surpass satellite TV in 2025 to become the most lucrative platform.

The pay TV subscriber count will drop by 7%, so revenues will fall faster – revealing lower TV average revenue per user and less emphasis on TV from the operators.

The UK and France will each decline by US$1bn, while satellite TV will lose US$3bn during the same period with subscribers increasingly converting to platforms that offer broadband connections.

Forecasts revealed by Digital TV Research estimate that pay TV revenues for digital terrestrial television will fall from $531m in 2022 to £310m in 2028.

Over the same period, satellite TV is set to drop from US$9.72bn to US$6.514bn, while internet protocol TV (IPTV) platforms such as Netflix and Hulu show a much slower decline, from US$7.956bn to US$7.704bn.

“IPTV revenues overtook digital cable in 2022,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “IPTV will surpass satellite television in 2025 to become the most lucrative platform.”