Western Europe expected to add 73 million SVoD subscribers by 2027

Western Europe SVoD subscriptions by platform in 2027 (million)

The number of SVoD subscriptions in Western Europe will reach 238 million by 2027, up 73 million from the 165 million recorded at the end of 2021, according to UK analysis firm Digital TV Research.

Six of the US-based platforms will account for 81% of all SVoD subscriptions in Western Europe by 2027, said the company’s latest report.

Netflix is expected to continue to lead the way with 62 million subscribers by 2027, but this is only three million more than the 59 million recorded at the end of 2021. Subscriptions in 2022 remain flat due to increased competition, with the streamer’s share of the market predicted to fall from 36% in 2021 to 26% by 2027.

Digital TV Research puts Amazon’s Prime Video in second place with 60.3 million subscribers. Disney+ is tipped take third place and see a much bigger rise in subscription numbers than Netflix, with the report estimating that the Mouse House’s share will rise to 46.3 million by 2027, up 20 million from 2021.

Newcomer Paramount+/SkyShowtime is expected to add 11 million subscribers in the period to reach 11.3 million by 2027, while HBO Max’s subscriber numbers are forecast to rise by five million to eight million.

Apple TV+ will have 5.2 million subscribers by 2027, while other platforms combined will have 45.6 million, said Digital TV Research.

Western European SVoD revenue is predicted to total US$25bn by 2027, up from US$16bn in 2021. The UK will remain the SVoD revenue leader.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Netflix will slowly lose SVoD revenue as we assume that it will convert its cheapest tier to a lower-priced hybrid AVoD-SVoD tier. Any SVoD revenue shortfall will be more than covered by its AVoD revenue. Netflix will remain the SVoD revenue winner, although its share of the total will fall from nearly half in 2021 to a third in 2027.

“We do not expect many more price rises due to the intense competition. We assume that Disney+ will follow its US example by converting its present tier to a hybrid AVoD-SVoD one and charging more for an SVoD-only tier.”