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US scripted downturn could mean 20% fewer releases in 2024, says Ampere

Richard Madden in spy thriller Citadel

The current scripted commissioning downturn in the US could lead to a 20% decline in new releases in 2024, according to UK-based research firm Ampere Analysis.

Ampere data indicated that the TV commissioning volume in America dropped significantly in the second half of 2022 and has remained low in the first four months of 2023.

Scripted has been hardest hit by the slowdown, with commissioning levels over the last three quarters down 24% year-over-year.

Given the length of time it takes to develop, produce and release a scripted series, the decline has not yet been felt by audiences. That will change in the third quarter of 2023, said Ampere, as the content deficit becomes apparent.

While the report does not mention the US writers’ strike, which officially began earlier this week, this will undoubtedly also have an impact on the overall scripted commissioning volume, especially if it lasts more than two months.

In fact, the impact of the strike might already be subtly reflected in the numbers, as US studios have been cautious about commissioning new scripted projects given that a writers’ strike has been rumoured for more than six months.

Ampere outlined two potential scenarios, the first of which would see commissioning rates recover quickly, meaning audiences would see between a 5% and 7% decline in scripted releases in each quarter between now and the second quarter of 2024.

The second scenario, if commissioning levels do not rebound, would see audiences feeling a “much greater impact towards the end of this year, with 16% fewer releases expected in Q4 2023, and 20% fewer from Q2 2024 onwards,” said Ampere.

While the major SVoD players are clearly commissioning less content, the pay TV networks are also slimming down their slates significantly. Ampere said TV networks such as TBS, FX, OWN, Freeform, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, BET and AMC have all reduced their scripted commissions by more than 50% when comparing the past nine months with the previous period.

The one notable exception is tech giant Amazon, which is the only major player to have increased its scripted commissioning levels. Recent releases from Amazon Studios include big-budget drama Citadel, The Boys, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel and The Lord of the Rings television series.

Ampere said Amazon was “capitalising on cutbacks made by rivals by increasing commissions of comedy and sci-fi and fantasy shows. Investing in scripted commissions now can pay off doubly for those willing to gamble, as the extra commissions will hit the market just as the output of original content from rivals drops to its lowest levels early next year.”

On the unscripted side, Ampere’s data highlighted a “severe” drop in commissioning activity across both SVoD and pay TV, with commissions dropping by 33% (or 151 projects) over the last nine months versus the same period in the prior year.

Between July 2022 and March 2023, there were 241 fewer unscripted TV commissions in the US, according to the report.

Ampere said the dip can be “primarily attributed” to Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), with the company commissioning 172 projects over that time span, a 32% decrease that was primarily felt by its SVoD and pay TV services.

Outside WBD, the drop across the remainder of the market was only 6%. However, unscripted commissions fell at Paramount Global and Comcast by 16% and 14%, respectively. At Disney, the volume of unscripted commissions increased, due primarily to Hulu.

Ampere said AVoD and FAST platforms have, to a degree, picked up some of the slack, making around 83 unscripted commissions over the nine-month period in the US, the equivalent of around 6% of all unscripted commissioning activity.

Ampere Analysis research manager Fred Black said: “While the commissioning cutbacks in unscripted content at the dominant pay TV and SVoD platforms have been severe, there is a sense of balance being restored after a significant pandemic peak.

“Covid-19 saw unscripted commissions soar out of necessity due to production complications, and then continue at a high level due to a surprisingly enthusiastic audience. What we’re seeing now is a course correction. Unscripted commissions in the US were down 16% over the last three quarters compared to the previous year, but compare it to the same period in 2019 and early 2020, and the drop is only 1%.

“There’s also optimism in the growing number of commissions from AVoD and FAST platforms, showing that while some SVoD services may have over-leveraged on unscripted content, there are plenty of nascent players still investing.”

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