US pay TV penetration predicted to fall below 50% of households

US pay TV subscribers by platform (000)

Penetration of traditional pay TV in the US will fall below 50% of households with a TV in 2026, according to UK analysis firm Digital TV Research.

This is down from 60% in 2021 and 91% in 2010. By 2027, Digital TV Research forecasts 60 million pay TV subscribers in the US, declining from 105 million in the peak year of 2010.

The number of households without a pay TV subscription will rocket from 11.3 million in 2010 to 72.9 million in 2027, mainly due to cord-cutting, the company said. Pay TV revenue peaked in 2014 at US$101bn; a US$48bn decline is forecast between 2014 and 2027, almost halving the total to US$53bn.

By platform, satellite subscribers will more than halve to 14.6 million in 2027 from 33.4 million in 2010, while digital cable subscribers will slip to 41.2 million from 45 million over the same period, according to Digital TV Research.

IPTV subscriber numbers will decrease to 4.4 million in 2027 from seven million in 2010, while analogue cable subscriptions will disappear completely, from 19.5 million in 2010, the company predicted.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The US lost six million pay TV subscribers each year from 2019 to 2021. Losses will decrease from now on, but the 2027 total will be 12 million lower than 2021.”