US broadcasting share will trail far behind YouTube by late 2026 claims Shapiro
Evan Shapiro at the Munich Media Days Conference
YouTube will command a greater share of television viewing in the US than all the traditional broadcast networks combined by the end of 2026, according to media analyst Evan Shapiro.
Appearing at the Munich Media Days Conference, the former NBCUniversal (NBCU) executive gave a presentation titled The New Normal, in which he illustrated just how dominant the Google-owned video sharing platform has become.
Shapiro said the data shows YouTube is the most important channel on living room television sets.
Statistics from Nielsen for aggregated pay TV, broadcast and streaming during August in the US revealed that YouTube has the highest audience share, with 13.1%. Disney is the runner-up with 9.4% and streamer Netflix comes in third with 8.7%. Just outside the top three are NBCU (7.6%), Paramount (7.1%) and Fox with 6.7%.
Shapiro told delegates: “YouTube is not just the number one channel on television in the US, it’s bigger than all of Disney combined. That’s Disney, Disney+, ABC, Hulu and ESPN.
“It’s bigger than all of NBC combined and all of Fox combined. In fact, YouTube is now bigger than Paramount and Fox combined. By this time next year, YouTube will have a bigger share of American television viewing than all of broadcast combined – and it’s going to catch up to pay TV too.
“The three reasons why YouTube is so popular are, 1) it’s free, 2) the TV app works incredibly well and 3), crucially, it’s radically personalised to every user that turns it on. It shows you exactly what you want, and that’s very satisfactory.
“For much of the last two years, I have been fighting with people online over whether or not YouTube is TV. My stance is simple: those who work in TV don’t get to say what TV is or is not – only the audience makes that choice. When audiences choose to lean back and watch something on television, then they see that thing as television, regardless of what the programmer or ad buyer thinks about it.”
The presentation saw Shapiro explain that there are two distinct media ecosystems currently running in parallel: Millennials (birth years 1981 to 1996) and younger, and Generation X (1965-1980) and older. He says that the two age demographics consume the same media but in very different ways.
Focusing on the German market, Shapiro said the country has the largest population of the so-called Silent Generation (1928-1945) than anywhere else in Europe after Italy.
He claimed this older population explains why many of the content consumption trends seen in the US are emerging at a more gradual pace in Germany. However, he warned TV executives not to be complacent as it’s only a matter of time before change arrives.
“From a media standpoint, Germany is lagging behind the rest of the Western world because you’re older and your media habits are changing more slowly,” he said.
“You also have way more free TV than the US, but mark my words, as this generational shift turns, things are going to change [in Germany] quickly and dramatically.”
