Uphill battle for The CW

UPFRONTS: Programming insider Marc Berman concludes his analysis of this week’s Upfront presentations in New York with The CW.

There is both good and bad news on The CW. Like every season since the net launched in the fall of 2006, the low bar of comparison means there is every reason to hope the network will pick up steam.

The arrival of three new scripted dramas – The Originals, which is spun-off from The Vampire Diaries; UK drama remake The Tomorrow People and period piece Reign – which are compatibly paired with returning product, is certainly a move in the right direction for the Warner Bros- and CBS Corp-backed net.

But by also populating the fall line-up with low-rated returnees Hart of Dixie, Beauty & the Beast and The Carrie Diaries, plus the unnecessary return of reality competition format America’s Next Top Model (which will open its 20th, and potentially final, season in August), the network will begin at a disadvantage. It is unlikely many new viewers will suddenly discover any of those four shows (or, in the case of Top Model, rediscover it). And The CW’s constant claims that it’s the network with digital momentum cannot be taken seriously until we actually see some data. Where is it?

Of the three new dramas, the teacher’s pet seems to be Reign, coming out of The Vampire Diaries on Thursday. But the 16th century French setting of this classic tale of a young Mary Queen of Scots could be an immediate turn-off to the traditional CW audience, which the network seems to think is overly interested in aliens and vampires. Personally, I think Reign will flop big time.

The Originals is a better pick-up, no doubt, because of the tie-in with The Vampire Diaries. And I like seeing The Originals anchor Tuesday instead of being hidden behind something potentially low-rated. But I do have a secret that The CW does not want you to know: The Vampire Diaries is down in the ratings year-to-year, which may mean a spin-off series could be potential overkill.

Third among the freshman trio is The Tomorrow People, the tale of an 18-year-old who finds he is acquiring supernatural powers. Since lead-in is still a very necessary ingredient for success, the support from Arrow, a bona fide hit for The CW, will certainly not hurt on Wednesday. The Tomorrow People, based on a UK show of the same name from the 1970s, stands the best chance of succeeding on the mini network.

The CW has two more new dramas planned for midseason – The Hundred and Star-Crossed – plus a new non- scripted series called Famous in 12. And only a 13-episode renewal for The Carrie Diaries could mean young Carrie Bradshaw and company will be gone by midseason if they have no better luck on Friday.

The CW would like you to think it has momentum. It certainly tried to make that loud and clear at its upfront presentation (which is something it does every year). But there are more misses than hits, and the return of the aforementioned low-rated quartet is a reflection of two things. The first is lack of funding. The CW, no doubt, has the smallest budget for programming of the five broadcast networks.

The second is lack of hits. Year after year since launching, the schedule has been hindered by low-rated series, digital or otherwise. And this season is no exception. It was another not-so-great season, which is something it always tries to hide behind the digital claims.

Overall, making changes on all five evenings is aggressive and shows the network is trying. But with so many sluggish returnees, expect another uphill battle for The CW.