‘Peak TV’ is now in rearview mirror, according to FX’s John Landgraf  

A third season of The Bear is on the way

The credits have finally rolled on Peak TV, according to FX chief John Landgraf, as the number of new and returning US scripted series released in 2023 declined by 14% to 516.

Landgraf, whose appearances at the Television Critics Association (TCA)’s press tours have become legendary for his tally of American scripted output and broader prognostications about the business, said that while the 2023 total was impacted by Hollywood’s dual strikes, the number would not return to the heights of 600 in 2022.

Aside from pandemic-hit 2020, the number of US scripted series has increased every year for more than a decade, climbing from 288 in 2012 to 532 in 2019. The total dipped to 493 in the first year of the pandemic but then climbed to 560 in 2021 and 600 in 2022.

The list tallies US scripted shows on broadcast, cable and streaming and does not include non-English-language shows, short-form content, kids programming or unscripted.

The decline is not a surprise, given the impact of both the strike and the broader pullback on streamer investment in scripted series.

Indeed, Landgraf, who has been incorrect about the end of Peak TV in the past, said last year that there was a “strong indication” the number of shows would decline following a record-setting 2022.

Landgraf, who coined the term ‘Peak TV’ in 2015, is not the only one to have tallied US scripted output and reached the conclusion that the bubble has burst.

Last month, Ampere Analysis published data indicating the number of US scripted series had fallen in 2023. However, the UK-based research firm’s data indicated that the decline had been steeper than Landgraf’s tally.

According to Ampere, the number of shows fell 24% to 481 in 2023 down from 633 in both 2021 and 2022, due to a “terminal decline” in the number of SVoD commissions.

While the industry is broadly in agreement that 600 American shows is too many, exactly where the number will land in the future is up for debate. Predictions vary on how many shows will be released in 2024 and beyond, though estimates on average land somewhere between 400 and 450 scripted series annually.

Elsewhere during FX’s presentation at the TCA winter press tour, the network revealed its slate of new and returning shows for 2023 including season three of The Bear, spy thriller The Veil starring Elisabeth Moss, a third instalment of soccer-focused docuseries Welcome to Wrexham, limited sports drama Clipped and part two of American Horror Story: Delicate.