SERIES MANIA: New research presented here at the Series Mania Forum in Lille reveals how saturation, cost inflation and a global supply imbalance are reshaping Western Europe’s content economy.

Olivia Deane

The era of breakneck subscription growth in Western European streaming is over. That was the clear message delivered by Olivia Deane, research manager at Ampere Analysis, presenting new data at Series Mania Forum in Lille earlier today.

The figures she laid out told the story of an industry that expanded rapidly, ran into structural limits and is now navigating a more complicated and, in some respects, more precarious second chapter.

Revenue growth across the Western European media industry slowed sharply in the post-peak period. Between 2020 and 2022, the sector grew US$15.2bn. Between 2023 and 2025, that figure fell to US$9.3bn – a decline of nearly 40%. The cause is not hard to identify: driven by moves into AVoD, OTT subscription penetration in the region reached 139% by 2025, a figure that reflects market saturation rather than fresh opportunity. When penetration exceeds 100%, it reflects households holding multiple subscriptions, something that is particularly vulnerable during economic downturns.

“Saturation is peaking in Western markets,” said Deane. “Streamers have balanced that high level of saturation in the Western markets by using AVoD to appeal to new consumers: people from lower-income demographics. But because there are only so many people from low-income households to target, this ad-funded boost is likely to be short-lived.”

Yet the content spending response to this slowdown has been notably muted. Despite a 39% deceleration in revenue growth, original content spend declined by just 3.2% over the same period. For an industry accustomed to treating programming as its primary growth lever, that restraint represents a significant recalibration – but not, at least not yet, a wholesale retreat.

“SVoD still drove 75% of total revenue growth, but this was largely sustained by business model changes rather than subscriber growth,” Deane told Lille delegates. Some 73% of SVoD revenue growth came from ad-funded tiers rather than subscriber expansion. The platforms are, in effect, monetising their existing audiences differently rather than growing them. That distinction matters for anyone whose business depends on what those platforms commission.

The rise of ad-supported models has run in parallel with the rapid expansion of free ad-supported television (FAST) and advertising video on demand (AVoD). FAST and AVoD revenues grew by more than 100% between the peak and post-peak periods.

But these platforms carry an important caveat for the production community: they are built almost entirely on licensed content. Globally, FAST platforms offered more than 43,000 TV seasons in 2025 and commissioned zero originals, according to data presented by Deane. AVoD platforms catalogued 32,000 seasons, with just 372 originals across the entire sector. The growth of these formats represents revenue opportunity for rights holders and distributors, but it is not a commissioning market in any meaningful sense.

Global streamers, which drove the most dramatic surge in original content spending during the peak years, have pulled back considerably, said Deane: “Major global streamers are shifting toward acquisition-led strategies, reducing commissioning activity in Western Europe. Five out of the six global streamers – Netflix, Amazon, Discovery+, Disney and Paramount – are moving towards an acquisition-first model. All five reduced the volume of commissions announced in Western Europe between 2023 and 2025.” The exception, she added, is HBO since it is still rolling out its platform.

Between 2020 and 2022, their average annual growth in original content spend ran at 54%. By the 2023 to 2025 period, that figure had fallen to 8% annually. Their commissioning activity during the boom was also concentrated in ways that have left certain genres exposed. Scripted content accounted for 40% of SVoD commissions at the height of the peak period, while children and family programming received just 7%.

The issue, Deane said, is not so much that the peak TV era has ended but that it happened in the first place. The massive injection of capital from streamers into content was a one-off event and is “unlikely to be repeated in our lifetimes,” she said. Also the spending was so unevenly distributed and distorted the market so that so producers now face “infrastructure issues” caused by over-expansion.

Production itself has become a bottleneck. The average production time for scripted series has increased by approximately 40% compared with 2020. Commission volumes declined only slightly – by around 2% – but the elongation of production cycles has materially compressed output capacity. Cost inflation has compounded the pressure. High-budget benchmarks have escalated from roughly US$11m per episode at the start of the period to approximately US$58m at peak. The economics of premium scripted television, particularly in high-concept genres, have become significantly harder to justify.

The consequence is visible in genre-level commissioning data. The steepest declines have been in science fiction and fantasy, crime and thriller, and drama – precisely the categories that demand the most investment and the longest lead times. Commissioners have been moving towards faster-to-produce formats, with entertainment and unscripted genres gaining ground. The market has also grown considerably more risk-averse at the renewal stage. Season two renewals fell from 32% in 2020 to 19% in 2025, with a corresponding shift towards long-running series and limited series formats that limit ongoing financial exposure.

“Western production slowdown has created a supply gap in Scripted content and Asia Pacific has emerged as the fastest-growing source of acquisitions,” said Deane. Acquired scripted premieres from the region grew by 17% between 2024 and 2025, driven primarily by romance and science fiction and fantasy titles, including K-drama and anime. Over the same period, North American scripted output fell by 8% and Western European output by 9%. The structural imbalance reflects a genuine reorientation of where scripted supply is originating.

One further development commands attention, though its eventual scale remains uncertain. Microdrama – shortform episodic content, typically running to around two minutes per episode – is expanding rapidly. More than 4,300 microdrama titles are now available across leading US platforms, and the entire combined catalogue can be consumed in under a week.

Viewers who engage with the format consume significantly more content overall, averaging 37 additional minutes of viewing per day compared with the typical viewer, who watches around four hours daily. Adoption has been strongest in Brazil and Turkey, with more moderate uptake in English-speaking markets.

Shifts in programme casting were also highlighted by Deane in Lille. Ensemble and duo-led productions have grown as a share of output, up 4% and 9% respectively, while both male-led and female-led titles have declined. “Romance is the only genre to have grown in commissioning activity between 2024 and 2025, driven predominantly by Asia Pacific production, but audience preference still skews heavily toward crime thrillers,” said Deane.

For Western European producers and broadcasters, the data points towards a narrowing window of strategic opportunities. Crime and thriller remains the most in-demand genre among audiences and is comparatively efficient to produce. Public broadcasters account for 30% of those faster-turnaround titles.

The acquisition market is opening up as supply shortages in Western markets create demand that domestic and North American production is no longer filling at previous volumes. And the growth of shortform and hybrid formats offers entry points into high-growth segments that do not require the capital commitments usually associated with premium scripted drama.

The streaming boom transformed the economics of television production in Western Europe over the past 10 years. What Deane’s data makes clear is that its aftershocks are still working their way through the system and that the shape of the market emerging on the other side will require a different set of instincts and skillsets from those that flourished during the peak.