Analyst: Netflix will stay dominant

Seinfeld: in arms race for library content

Streaming giant Netflix will continue to grow its subscriber numbers and remain the biggest player despite the introduction of major competitors to the SVoD market, according to projections from Digital TV Research.

Many commentators have wondered whether Netflix will be able to retain its market dominance with the recent launch of Disney+ and Apple+ and then next year’s launch of NBCUniversal’s Peacock and WarnerMedia’s HBO Max services.

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings has said the content arms race, which has seen big money exchange hands for library content such as Seinfeld and Big Bang Theory, will intensify as more platforms come online.

According to projections from UK-based company Digital TV Research, all five SVoDs will have 529 million SVoD subscribers by 2025. Between now and 2025 they will accrue 257 million subscribers which doubles current SVoD numbers.

Disney+ will attract the biggest number of subscribers in that time by having an estimated 101 million people sign up for the service.

Netflix will add 70 million to its 151 million global subscribers, which Digital TV Research said shows there is still growth for Netflix. But it will only add 6 million subscribers in the US.

HBO Max will have 30 million paying subscribers by 2025 but if non-payers are included, this figure could be tripled. This also applies to Apple TV+, which Digital TV Research projects will have 27 million paying subscribers by 2025. However, Apple customers who buy a new iPhone or computer will be given a year’s free subscription to the service which could see its subscriber numbers grow much more than that.

The US is by far the most important country for the platforms, but international markets are becoming increasingly significant.

“Only 29% of Netflix’s subscribers will be in the US by 2025. The proportion will be as high as 80% for the younger HBO Max,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.