Advertising agency ZenithOptimedia has stood by its prediction that US advertising spend will grow 3.6% this year, benefiting cable channels at the expense of broadcast networks.
The ad market will grow 3.8% in 2013 and 4.7% in 2014 but the broadcast networks will see only 1% growth this year, which will reverse to a 3% decline in two years’ time, according to the forecast.
Zenith first predicted 3.6% growth in the US in March.
The London Olympics will do less to help broadcaster NBC than its coverage of the Vancouver Winter Olympics did two years ago because the time difference means many will view online rather than watching pre-recorded TV spots.
On the other hand, cable ad spend will grow, rising 10% this year, 10.4% the next and 11% in 2014.
Broadcast dollars already lost to cable “do not look to be coming back,” Zenith claimed. Furthemore, ” the trend will likely continue as cable networks continue to add quality programming to their line-ups.”
However, Zenith saw trouble at Discovery Communications’ joint-venture channel OWN: Oprah Winfrey Network, which had “underperformed” with projected losses of US$330m.
Zenith predicted growth of 4.3% worldwide, compared with 4.8% in March.