The failure of several high-profile reality formats in the US does not bode well for the genre. But as Kevin Downey reports, many players believe there’s life in the old dog yet.

Reality television is in a slump on US English-language broadcast networks, with a number of heavily hyped shows like Keshet International’s Rising Star, John de Mol’s Utopia and FremantleMedia’s The X Factor suffering weak ratings or being cancelled.

This comes on top of declining audiences for long-running hits like FremantleMedia’s American Idol and Mark Burnett and de Mol’s The Voice as viewers seek fresher content on cable TV and streaming services.

Yet reality TV producers and media analysts say the genre isn’t dead. In fact, on a smaller scale, it’s doing just fine on cable. And on the broadcast networks, the big-budget, highly rated reality shows that have fuelled growth for more than a decade may simply be in a cyclical downturn that will right itself with the next hit. Execs expect this to happen within a year or two.

“I’m not worried whatsoever,” says Toby Gorman, executive VP of unscripted programming at FremantleMedia North America. “We are in a cycle where there may not be any big launches soon. But within a year or so you will see the next big thing. Reality TV will come back stronger.”

Acknowledging that 2014 was a “year of transition,” Keshet International’s CEO Alon Shtruzman says it was “not an example of where things are heading” and he dismisses the idea that reality TV is in any kind of terminal decline. “A lot is going on in the industry right now – M&As, new platforms emerging – so how can we be sure the non-scripted genre is stalling? It’s too simplistic to say that. Something interesting will emerge very soon.”

This year, he adds, is one in which “international collaborations make sense” and not the time to ignore the power of formats. “We know that foreign imports to the US succeed, just take Big Brother and The Voice,” he says.

Brian Hughes, senior VP and audience analysis practice lead at media buying agency Magna Global, agrees. However, he also notes it’s getting harder for reality TV producers to find the genre’s next hit when viewers are turning away from the broadcast networks. “I don’t think the genre is dead; these things are cyclical,” he says. “But it is symptomatic of the larger shift in the way TV content is being viewed. Last year was the first time we saw concrete evidence that subscription video-on-demand is eating into traditional TV ratings.”

Just what the next reality hit on broadcast TV will be is, of course, anyone’s guess. Some execs say it is likely that a singing or dancing competition – like American Idol or BBC Worldwide’s Dancing with the Stars – could once again capture the attention of viewers.

But in the US, perhaps more than anywhere else in the world, TV audiences are attracted to fresh content that they are not getting elsewhere. One format that execs hope could be ripe for a rebound is the gameshow.

A few programs already on air are giving them reason for hope. One is FremantleMedia’s syndicated gamer Family Feud, which airs largely in afternoons and is hosted by comedian and talkshow host Steve Harvey. The show has accomplished the once unimaginable feat of dethroning Sony Pictures TV’s Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy! in key demographics. Those two shows have dominated the genre for 30 years.

Moreover, FremantleMedia’s Craig Ferguson-hosted gameshow Celebrity Name Game has generated respectable, if not spectacular, ratings in its debut season. And Universal Television’s Hollywood Game Night, hosted by Jane Lynch, is now in its third season in NBC primetime.

“In reality TV, we are starting to see a much more cyclical structure,” says Brant Pinvidic, president of Eyeworks USA. “Like scripted, where hospital and cop dramas come in and out of fashion, we are finding that as the reality business matures it is developing a much more structured buying cycle. I expect gameshows will make a comeback in the next couple of years. We will see a lot of innovation in that genre.”

In fact, at least one high-profile gamer is in the works at Warner Bros, where Mark Burnett is developing 500 Questions. ABC has picked up the show, which will debut later this year.

“More than anything, it’s all about gameshows right now,” says Gorman. “They’re safe and are not too risky. I hear that from buyers, and, of course, FremantleMedia has a library of very successful gameshows.”

On cable TV, many networks have line-ups consisting almost entirely of reality shows, including some with unique twists on unscripted programming that are generating good ratings.

For instance, the unscripted comedy Chrisley Knows Best, about self-made millionaire Todd Chrisley and his family, is going into production on its third season this month. In December, the show drummed up some of its biggest audiences for NBC-owned USA Network, which is better known for its scripted programming. On December 2, for instance, some 2.4 million people tuned in.

“The networks are giving doc series and comedy a shot,” says Chris Newman at talent agency UTA. “And NBC’s Esquire Network is doing things differently. Most of the cable networks are doing blue-collar, but Esquire is doing something for guys in urban areas with higher incomes. You will see other networks expand out from what’s working for them now.”

Other reality shows doing well on cable TV have storylines that are relatable to viewers. For example, Eyeworks USA’s Bar Rescue with Jon Taffer on Spike TV is a straightforward business makeover show but one that often focuses on a family torn apart by their failing business.

“Cable has a much easier time with reality because they have time to build characters,” says Pinvidic. “Broadcasters have to be big and loud, and grab everyone’s attention right away. We’re having a lot of success with formatted reality like Bar Rescue and Catch a Contractor with Adam Carolla. People understand the shows and they have characters that people like.”

Meanwhile, social experiments like Utopia and, long before that, Forever Eden, where cast members fended for themselves on an isolated patch of land, haven’t hit yet. But they may soon.

“In 2000, after Survivor and Big Brother, there were some pitches out there that were social experiments,” says Clay Newbill, executive producer of Sony Pictures Television’s primetime ABC hit Shark Tank, which is based on the Dragons’ Den format. “They didn’t work at that time. Now, 14 years later, maybe the timing is right.”

Another subgenre that’s capturing the attention of viewers is documentary series – doc-style reality shows, on both cable and broadcast networks.

On broadcast, doc series NY Med on ABC increased its audience 25% from its first season, which aired two years earlier, to an average six million viewers. The show won its time slot for each of its episodes last summer.

This is part of a trend with US reality TV, where formats like Universal Television’s Last Comic Standing are being revived, and doing well. That show returned last year with a new line-up of judges, including comedian Roseanne Barr, and generated ratings in line with its previous season in 2010. Last Comic returns to NBC this summer.

Still, while no one is thinking US reality TV is kaput, just about everyone in the reality business is anxiously awaiting primetime’s next megahit. “We are always looking for the next big thing,” says Newbill. “That’s never going to change. But the next big thing will happen when it happens.”