With the LA Screenings taking place next month, programming insider Marc Berman casts a critical eye over the US broadcast networks’ scheduling requirements going into next season.

If you believed the hype, every new TV series from the US broadcast networks would be a hit. But in fact, most new series have a hard time and this season was no exception.

For every The Blacklist and Sleepy Hollow there were flops like Lucky 7, We Are Men, Welcome to the Family, Dads and The Tomorrow People. And only an estimated 10 of the 28 new entries from last fall (with a similar ratio in midseason) are expected to return next time.

But with pilot season comes hope. And the immediate programming trend of note for 2014/15 is the spin-off, with proposed offspring coming from NCIS, CSI and the concluded How I Met Your Mother on CBS, and Arrow and Supernatural on The CW. There’s the usual array of dramas hoping for a spot on the fall or midseason schedules, with the emphasis on action-adventure, crime, relationship, fantasy and the supernatural. Comedy is the usual mix of family, workplace, youths looking for love or coming of age and the old trying to find themselves.

CBS, as always, is in the best position for the future with a wide array of hit product to work from throughout the week. And NBC has something it has not had in years: momentum. However, no network is without its challenges, and Fox has the most obstacles, care of a rapidly deteriorating American Idol and a fall schedule minus The X Factor for the first time in three years. ABC, unfortunately, is coming out of one of its worst seasons for new product. And The CW is consistent but limited.

To whet your appetite for what could lie ahead, here is a look, by US broadcast network, at what possible decisions the networks need to make as they draw up the blueprints for their fall 2014 line-ups.

Decision time for CBS
CBS, once again, is the network to beat when it comes to total viewers. It has, in fact, been the most-watched overall for 11 out of the past 12 years. But the Eye network has slipped from first to third among adults 18-49 (and from first to second in adults 25-54).

And there are more trouble spots in the CBS line-up than we’ve seen in recent seasons. An estimated three to four hours of the 22-hour weekly schedule are in need of repair for next season.

The addition of eight Thursday night football games next fall begs the immediate question will The Big Bang Theory, which just snagged a three-season renewal, remain on Thursday until November when the games are over? Or will CBS move it back to Monday, which could be lacking without How I Met Your Mother?

CBS, of course, could relocate Sheldon, Leonard and company to Monday as the temporary anchor to ignite a new sitcom at 20.30. But the more logical manoeuvre would be a permanent move into the Monday 20.00 anchor spot to lift the entire evening. And the best way to cap it off is the potential new spin-off from granddaddy CSI, given how well the first spin-off, CSI: Miami, performed there from 2002 to 2010.

Vying for a spot on Monday, of course, is How I Met Your Dad, which is a spin-off from demo-friendly sitcom HIMYM. And the revival of The Odd Couple with Matthew Perry (who is zero for three in the new series department since Friends concluded) could be an option. Of the three remaining freshman comedies on CBS this season, only The Crazy Ones is doomed.

As the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and the NCIS double pop on Tuesday is a likely returnee. But will the proposed spin-off from NCIS, set in New Orleans, make it three hours of military-themed crime-solving for the evening? Or is NCIS: Los Angeles or the spin-off a better option for Thursday or Sunday? Since CBS always manages to cancel one established crime drama each season (bye bye, The Mentalist), moving critically acclaimed The Good Wife to Sunday at 22.00 frees up lead-in 21.00 for new programming blood – like a confirmed Battle Creek, perhaps?

Wednesday is consistent, care of Survivor, Criminal Minds and CSI, which will head into season 15. But CBS should consider moving current Tuesday 22.00 occupant Person of Interest back to Thursday at 21.00 out of two comedies.

And since a proven show is a better option than something entirely new, a move from Monday to Thursday at 20.00 for either 2 Broke Girls or Mike & Molly is not out of the question. Since no comedy comes close to the strength of The Big Bang Theory, the losses in the Thursday 20.00 hour caused by moving it could be offset by the return of Person of Interest at 21.00 (which could provide stronger lead-in support to a new 22.00 drama instead of modest Elementary).

Friday could, and should, remain intact with Undercover Boss, Hawaii Five-O and Blue Bloods. And Saturday, of course, is the home to two hours of repeats into veteran 48 Hours. CBS, as always, is best positioned to programme Saturday with original scripted shows. But chances of that happening are nil, unfortunately.

NBC gets back in the game
Ignited by the recent Winter Olympics, NBC currently ranks first in the key demographics (adults 18-49, adults 25-54 and adults 18-34, tied with Fox) and a competitive second (behind CBS) in total viewers. And the percentage gains, year-to-year, are in the double-digits.

But before anyone points the finger to just the Olympics, there is positive news to be found elsewhere. The Voice remains the hot singing competition; The Blacklist on Monday is the bona fide new hit; and dramas Chicago Fire and spin-off Chicago PD are both formulaic and effective. Furthermore, The Biggest Loser remains an adequate utility player; recent Tuesday sitcoms About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher have been sampled; Grimm is a valid young adult option on Friday; and Sunday Night Football is a blockbuster.

That’s right – there are a growing number of positives at the Peacock net! But Wednesday is in need of stronger anchor support than relocated Revolution, Law & Order: SVU is tired, Thursday is virtually invisible, Friday is not helped by the return of sophomore Hannibal and Sunday after football season is a mix bag of mediocrity.

An estimated three or even six hours of the weekly schedule is in need of repair on NBC.

Note to NBC: concentrate on Wednesday through Friday next fall, and do not forget about modest Sundays in the first quarter of 2015 and beyond. While a new season of Celebrity Apprentice has been announced for next season, that is only a temporary solution for Sunday.

The obvious, and immediate, decision NBC needs to make is what to do with The Blacklist. Former time period occupant Revolution, after all, lost a large chunk of its protected audience once it stopped airing out of The Voice. But The Blacklist held up in between seasons of the singing competition and moving it elsewhere frees up Monday at 22.00 for another new drama to take advantage of The Voice, such as Emerald City or The Slap, perhaps.

If NBC really wants to take a bold step – and it could be the most aggressive of the new season – it should move The Blacklist to Thursday. If the network chooses 21.00 (in place of now failing Hollywood Game Night), a new drama at 22.00 or a third season of Revolution could also benefit.

Since NBC does not want to totally abandon its Thursday night strategy, comedies can remain in the 20.00 hour. But was there really a need to already renew low-rated Parks & Recreation? And isn’t it time to let Community go?

Thanks to the lead-in support from The Voice, recent Tuesday 21.00-22.00 sitcoms About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher can remain intact. Or the network could add a new comedy in the hour (Tooken from Tina Fey is looking for a home), ship one to Thursday or hold one back until midseason.

As long as The Voice remains in the Tuesday 20.00 hour, there will be interest in the lead-out comedies. After all, lead-in still matters and it always will.

Wednesday on NBC, of course, needs a boost at 20.00, with either comedies or a new drama in consideration. But the hour, unfortunately, remains a trouble spot for the network and Law & Order: SVU, while still worth renewing, remains a modest option at 21.00. The Friday 20.00 and 22.00 hours remain in need of repair, with reliable time period filler Dateline ready to step in.

As NBC plans ahead, it does so with something it has not seen in years: momentum. And when you have established shows to programme around, architecting a fall schedule is an easier thing to do.

ABC stumbles despite DWTS
The number four network has work to do, and plenty of it. While you cannot blame ABC for a lack of new product (eight new series launched last fall, with a similar number slated for midseason), the network has almost completely misfired this season.

Only two freshman dramas – Resurrection and Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD, which is not the big hit the network was hoping for – are worth renewing. Sitcom The Goldbergs will also be back, but every other new comedy, including recent entry Mixology, has struggled. Three to six hours of the weekly line-up is in need of repair in Alphabet-land.

As always, success – or lack of it – on ABC is largely dependent on Dancing With the Stars. But given its age, nine years, there is only one place for it to go: down. And the network has not been able to capitalise on still worthy Wednesday anchor sitcoms The Middle and Modern Family.

While Monday will likely remain intact with two hours of DWTS, which is too old to move at this point, bona fide hit Castle at 22.00 could be a potential option to fix the troubled Tuesday 22.00 hour. And the still respectable performance from DWTS would benefit a new Monday 22.00 drama. Projects battling it out in the time period include Secrets & Lies and The Black Box.

ABC had high hopes for Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD as the Tuesday 20.00 anchor, and it could very well remain intact there next season. But the buzz generated at Comic-Con and other gatherings has not translated into a huge hit on the small screen. And modest The Goldbergs at 21.00 is not the big hit we were led to believe. A better option would be to find another new comedy and move The Goldbergs to 21.30 in place of Trophy Wife, which should have been airing out of compatible Modern Family on Wednesday.

ABC also needs to work on the protected Wednesday 20.30 and 21.30 half-hours, and that includes replacing modest midseason returnee Suburgatory. Although sophomore Nashville from a ratings perspective remains a weak Wednesday 22.00 link, continued critical accolades – and abysmal showings from fresh dramas like Mind Games and Killer Women –means a third season is likely. But a move elsewhere (to Tuesday at 22.00 perhaps) could be an option.

It is back to square one in the Thursday 20.00 hour, no doubt, due to the failure of unnecessary spin-off Once Upon a Time in Wonderland. And the network needs to find another comedy to air out of Last Man Standing on Friday, given the lacklustre showing for sophomore The Neighbors.

While College Football does keep Saturday occupied in the fourth quarter, the jury is still out on Sunday. If Resurrection holds up, ABC is back in the game at 21.00 But three-year-old Revenge, now at 22.00, cannot just regain its freshman momentum since moving to Sunday (and that, too, could be shipped to another evening).

The bottom line for ABC is that there was no shortage of new programmes this season, but not the right ones, unfortunately.

Fox loses significant steam
Nothing lasts forever, so the decline of American Idol was inevitable. No show at the age of 13, after all – even the once blockbuster singing competition – can maintain its previous levels. But rapidly fading Idol is alarming because Fox has already announced that fall occupant The X Factor is not returning.

Although the recent mass renewals by CBS was a sign of strength and consistency, Fox issuing early pick-ups to New Girl, The Mindy Project and new critical darling Brooklyn Nine-Nine is misleading because none of these sitcoms is delivering much of an audience. And ratings for fellow renewals The Following and Glee, which should be ‘graduating’ this spring, are down by double-digit percentages year-to-year.

While not everything is a bust – veteran Bones, The Simpsons and Family Guy are still options, and the sleeper success last fall of drama Sleepy Hollow proves the potential value of trying something different – the prognosis for Fox at present is grim. And the only way to forge ahead is to find the next generation of hit programming. As much as half of Fox’s weekly 15-hour line-up is in need of repair for next season.

Looking ahead, Fox has confirmed a number of new scripted series for 2014/15, including comedies Last Man on Earth, Cabot College, Mulaney and animated Bordertown, from Seth MacFarlane; and dramas Hieroglyph, Backstrom, Batman prequel Gotham and Broadchurch remake Gracepoint. So there is every reason to believe the network will be aggressive. But just where do you position these growing number of hopefuls?

Bones always resonates, no matter where the network airs it, so it could return as the Monday anchor into sophomore Sleepy Hollow. But a better option might be to schedule highly touted Gotham in the Monday 20.00 hour, which would not have to compete with Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD on ABC on Tuesday or The CW’s Arrow on Wednesday, if they remain in their time periods.

The network is intent on airing comedies on Tuesday, and the collapse of tired Glee as the new Tuesday 20.00 anchor means the return of four live-action sitcoms is an option. But with Wednesday now open without The X Factor, an attempt at comedies on Wednesday – particularly 20.00-21.00 – is very possible.

Bones could open Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, and the best way to handle the final 13 episodes of Glee would be to position the show where it will do the least harm: Friday at 21.00. Burn it off quickly – and never issue a two-season renewal again to a series already on the decline.

Sports-themed programming on Saturday will likely remain intact this fall, while Sunday will be populated with animation, of course. And since American Dad is moving to TBS in originals, the most likely time period for upcoming Bordertown is 21.30 out of perennial MacFarlane favourite Family Guy.

As for American Idol in midseason, and despite the ongoing erosion, ratings at present still warrant another season.

The perfect scenario would be one final season with the original trio of hosts: Simon Cowell, Paula Abdul and Randy Jackson. But Fox will not give up on Idol until the bitter end. And trying to recreate the magic from those early seasons is nothing more than wishful thinking. It will never happen.

The CW hopes to move upward
Unlike recent seasons, when The CW opened the fall marred by year-on -year rating losses, stability seems to be the order of the day. The early renewal of freshman dramas The Originals and Reign – in addition to established Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries and Arrow – points to supernatural and superhero-themed stories remaining the emphasis. The return of half the current line-up has been confirmed. And looking for space in the schedule – much like Vampire Diaries spin-off The Originals last fall – are potential spin-offs from Arrow (The Flash) and Supernatural (Supernatural: Bloodlines).

Since The CW is not in a financial position to introduce five hours (out of 10) of new programming, on-the-fence dramas Hart of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries could make a comeback, with Hart of Dixie more likely. And the revival of Whose Line is it Anyway?, now airing on Friday at 20.00, is another expected returnee.

Less likely to be back is Beauty and the Beast, which was not worthy of a second season, and freshman dramas The Tomorrow People and Star-Crossed. The jury is still out on futuristic themed The 100, which debuted on Wednesday March 19.

Given the positive returns – at expected CW levels, that is – for The Originals, Arrow and The Vampire Diaries as the Tuesday-Thursday 20.00 anchors, all three could remain in their time periods next season. And one way to fix perennially struggling Monday could be to create a double dose of Supernatural, with the veteran Jared Padalecki/Jensen Ackles starrer at 20.00 leading into the proposed spin-off, or vice versa.

Tuesday could feature a new drama coming out of The Originals (proposed projects include Identity, iZombie and The Messengers), or relocated Reign if The CW decides to try something new out of The Vampire Diaries. And The Flash is a logical fit out of Arrow if it does move forward.

The CW, of course, will never be a network targeted at the masses. But what it has accomplished this season is more of a stable presence with an overall theme, and attempting to capitalise on the cult appeal of Supernatural and Arrow, following the success of The Originals, is another step in the right direction.